{"id":443,"date":"2018-05-31T12:14:43","date_gmt":"2018-05-31T10:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/marxistworkersparty.org.za\/?p=443"},"modified":"2019-09-07T13:43:13","modified_gmt":"2019-09-07T11:43:13","slug":"the-ramaphosa-presidency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/?p=443","title":{"rendered":"The Ramaphosa Presidency"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Can CR save the ANC in 2019?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

by Shaun Arendse<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ANC has admitted that they could lose their majority in next year\u2019s national elections. A leaked internal report says the possibility that the ANC will only remain in power in a coalition with other parties is \u201chigh\u201d. It does not rule-out being forced out of power and into opposition. The report complains that the number of \u201cloyal\u201d ANC supporters shrinks at every election. Pointing-out what we has highlighted before, and the 2016 local elections confirmed, it says, \u201cWe [the ANC] face the possibility of losing majority support in most large cities and in much of the economic heartland of South Africa.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ANC have\nbeen in power for a generation. After 24 years this is the situation facing the\npoor and the working class: 9.5 million people (36.7% of working-age\npopulation) are unemployed; 3.3 million under 24-year olds are not in\nemployment, education or training; 30.4 million people live in poverty on R992\nor less per month; the richest 1% of the population owns 71% of wealth and the\npoorest 60% only 7%. These statistics are a sanitised description for suffering,\nbrutalised lives and the unfulfilled potential of millions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Ramaphoria\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Zuma\u2019s forced\nresignation there was a big effort in the media to paint Ramaphosa as SA\u2019s saviour.\nThis was part of a conscious strategy by the ruling class. They wanted to reassure\nthe imperialist countries that the corruption of the Zuma years would not\nthreaten their investments through its damage to public finances. They also hoped\nto defuse some of the burning anger and frustration amongst poor, working class\nand even middle class people by channelling feelings of relief into the idea\nthat \u201cthings will be better now\u201d. But better for who?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The class\ncharacter of Ramaphosa\u2019s government is already beyond doubt \u2013 it is a bosses\u2019\ngovernment through to its bone marrow. Ramaphosa\u2019s first budget ensured that\nthe poor and the working class will pay the main price for capitalism\u2019s\nfailures made worse by the disasters of the Zuma years. Government spending, including\non school infrastructure, informal settlement upgrades and road development, will\nbe cut by R85.7 billion over the next three years. But corporate tax on the\nprofits of big business was left unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead Value\nAdded Tax (VAT \u2013 a \u2018sales tax\u2019 on every purchase made in SA) is being increased\nby 1%. In an attempt to portray the budget as pro-poor, government has invited\nproposals for extending the range of commodities on which VAT is not levied\n(charged) beyond the 19 exempt basic food items, such as bread, milk, pap,\nmealies and eggs. But VAT applies to all goods and services, including administered\nprices like electricity. This increase will still hit the pockets of the poor\nhardest. In addition the fuel levy increase will lead to ever-rising\nmarket-related price increases resulting from higher transport cost. These costs\nwill be passed on to consumers including on the VAT-exempt basic goods. Even some\nof the tax increases on so-called \u2018luxury\u2019goods will hurt the poorest \u2013 in the\n21st<\/sup> century can a cell phone be considered a \u2018luxury\u2019? Good luck\nfinding a job without one!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But more revealing\nthan anything else of the continuity in character of Ramaphosa\u2019s government are\nthe amendments to labour laws. Proposed under Zuma\u2019s presidency and set to become\nlaw under Ramaphosa\u2019s, these amendments will increase the powers of the\ncapitalist state over trade unions and make it harder for workers to defend\nthemselves by going on strike. There is no greater proof of \u201cwhose side\u201d\nRamaphosa is on than his willingness to disarm workers and empower their class\nenemy \u2013 the bosses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plans to\nintroduce a National Minimum Wage, masterminded by Ramaphosa when still\ndeputy-president, should have been a pass book designating him as a\u2018champion of\nthe poor\u2019. But the campaign by the Saftu federation has upset this. It forced\nRamaphosa to admit that the new minimum wage is not a living<\/em><\/strong> wage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Anti-corruption<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even so, many\nwill be watching Ramaphosa\u2019s \u2018clean-up\u2019 of the state-owned companies \u2013 PRASA,\nEskom, and Transnet etc. \u2013 with some enthusiasm. It is satisfying to see the\nGuptas on the run and entire boards of Zuma\u2019s cronies dismissed. The ANC\ngovernment itself estimates that Zuma-era corruption looted R100 billion from\nthe \u2018public purse\u2019 via these companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even if\ncorruption is completely ended the parastatals will still not benefit the poor\nand working class in the main. Gordhan admitted this recently in a speech in\nparliament. He said their role was \u201creducing the cost structure in the economy\nso that other economic players become more efficient and competitive.\u201d This can\nonly mean the big businesses and multinationals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A \u2018clean-up\u2019 of\nthe state-owned companies in the interests of the working class would start by\nending the regime of tenders and insourcing all workers on a living wage. It\nwould extend the scale of public ownership across the economy so that the\nbenefits the parastatals bring do not remain in the pockets of the bosses but\nbenefit all of society. This would require a regime of workers\u2019 control to\nreplace the undemocratic appointees of the capitalist politicians. This will\nnot happen under Ramaphosa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramaphosa\u2019s\npolicies are in complete continuity with the ANC\u2019s commitment to neo-liberal\ncapitalist policies introduced decisively from 1996. If neo-liberal policies\ncould not fix unemployment, poverty and inequality over the past 24 years, why\nwould they do so now? The working class can expect nothing different under the\nRamaphosa presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Factional struggle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramaphosa was\nable to move against Zuma fairly quickly. But as early as his post-Zuma cabinet\nreshuffle it became clear that he did not have unlimited room for manoeuvre. Whilst\nsome of Zuma\u2019s worst cabinet cronies were moved to different departments \u2013 for\nexample Malusi Gigaba and Bathabile Dlamini \u2013 they still remained ministers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it has been\nthe explosive developments in the North West from mid-April that have most sharply\nrevealed the depth of the rot in the ANC. Government administration under\nGupta-linked premier, Supra Mahumapelo, had virtually collapsed because of widespread\ncorruption and out-of-control looting. This led to Ramaphosa\u2019s unprecedented\nstep of placing the entire province under the administration of national\ngovernment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The North West\nis not an isolated example. At local level 87 municipalities across the country\n(31% of the total) are classified as \u201cdysfunctional\u201d or \u201cdistressed\u201d. Only 7%\nare classified as \u201cwell-functioning\u201d! Corruption is the major driver of local government\nbreak-down. In KZN, the continuation of ANC political murders (24 since the\nstart of 2016) is another extreme symptom of the rot. All of this raises a\nserious question about the viability of the ANC across whole swathes of the\ncountry as anything more than a looting machine for politically connected\ngangsters. Mahumapelo eventually resigned. But he remains ANC chairperson. The\nvery fact that Ramaphosa had to use his position as state<\/em><\/strong> president to force\nthe issue by suspending the North West government indicates a growing deadlock between\nthe factions within the ANC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mahumapelo\u2019s\ndefiant game of resigning, \u2018un-resigning\u2019 and then \u2018retiring\u2019 was a sign of\ndesperation. It almost certainly represents the new mind-set of the whole\nZuma-clique. So whilst the Zuma-clique has been pushed onto the defensive, they\nare not defeated. Holding on to whatever machinery of government they can\nwhilst avoiding court and prison is the narrow self-interest driving them. They\nneed to consolidate a stronghold from which to defend themselves and launch a\ncounter-attack to, in Ace Magashule\u2019s words, \u201cget our ANC back in five years\u201d.\nThe outcome of the tightly controlled Free State conference in May (though\ncontested) seems to have been a step in the right direction for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The struggle for\nfactional dominance will continue to playout throughout the ANC. The threat of\norchestrated violence will remain a very real threat as events in the North\nWest have shown. The Zuma-clique does not care if the ANC is stamped into the\ndust in the 2019 elections as a result. This takes the factional struggle into increasingly\nunpredictable and unstable territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course of\nthe factional struggle will have an important effect on the ANC\u2019s 2019\nperformance. It is already taking its toll. The inability of Ramaphosa to deal\na decisive knock-out blow to the pro-Zuma faction has prevented him from taking\nadvantage of \u2018Ramaphoria\u2019 and the disarray in the DA by calling an early\nelection as some commentators speculated he might. To do so now could\nstrengthen his factional enemies through their control, especially in the provinces,\nof nominations for ANC candidate lists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DA\u2019s\nsuicidal behaviour around the \u2018sacking\u2019 of Cape Town mayor Patricia De Lille and\nthe internal backlash against Maimane\u2019s Freedom Day speech mentioning \u2018white\nprivilege\u2019 will have confirmed in the eyes of many black voters that the party\nis an \u2018old white boys club\u2019. There could be a certain swing back towards the\nANC from a section of the black middle class which flirted with the DA under\nZuma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, a\nsection of the white middle class could be persuaded to vote for a \u2018Ramaphosa\nANC\u2019. They would be voting for the man and not his party in the hope that his\npresidency can guarantee the economic stability they crave. Reflecting this,\nformer apartheid-president De Klerk has endorsed Ramaphosa, saying he,\n\u201cunderstands business, he understands the economy, and he is committed to\nachieving economic growth\u201d. However, if Ramaphosa is unable to deliver at least\na convincing appearance of victory in the ANC\u2019s internal factional struggle his\nattractiveness to the middle class \u2013 both black and white \u2013 will be greatly\nreduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High levels of\nvoter abstention among the poor, young people and the working class skews\nelection after election and will likely do so again in 2019. Around 16 million\npeople did not vote in the 2014 elections. In that sense the ANC lost its\nmajority long ago \u2013 they \u2018won\u2019 2014 with the votes of 35% of the eligible\npopulation. Given all of this, it is possible that the ANC could scrape the 50%\n+ 1 needed to remain in government after 2019. This would not be a sign of the\nANC\u2019s strength but the opposite. Another \u2018victory\u2019 on a further reduced social\nbase will only sharpen class contradictions and further prepare the ground for social\nexplosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Coalition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if the ANC does\nfall below 50% the EFF leadership stands ready to assist. They have positioned\nthemselves as a future ANC coalition partner. At Malema\u2019s request there have\nbeen talks so that the two parties can \u201cfind each other\u201d. With Zuma gone and\nthe ANC formally backing land expropriation without compensation, Malema claims\nthat the conditions for forming a coalition, such as after the 2016 elections,\nhave mostly been met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This just shows how superficial the EFF\u2019s conditions were. Under Ramaphosa nothing has changed on the ground for millions of poor and working class people and nor will it. But for the EFF leadership the ANC is now sufficiently \u2018different\u2019 for them to change their attitude. This is entirely consistent with the analysis that we have made of the EFF since they entered parliament \u2013 theirs is not a struggle against capitalism, of which Ramaphosa is a near-perfect representative, but a struggle for control of the capitalist state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Winnie\nMandela\u2019s funeral, Ramaphosa \u2018reached-out\u2019 to the EFF in his speech. If he\nhandles the presentation of land expropriation carefully he can provide the EFF\nwith convincing \u2018radical\u2019 arguments to enter a coalition \u2013 \u2018black solidarity\u2019\nto return the land to people against the racist white minority. Even so, in the\nrun-up to 2019 the EFF will have to blow hot one day, and cold the next, on the\nANC. They need to ensure the ANC falls below 50% and maximise their own votes\nto strengthen their bargaining position. At the same time they must be careful\nto leave themselves room to manoeuvre so that their embrace of the ANC the day\nafter the election is not too obviously hypocritical and opportunistic as it\nwas when they installed the DA in power in Tshwane, Joburg and Nelson Mandela\nBay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Vacuum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this\nunderlines the huge political vacuum that exists. All of the parties in\nparliament support capitalism. Imagine the impact that a party with a bold\nsocialist programme for a struggle to fundamentally transform society could\nhave. Ending the cynical  \u2018window\ndressing\u2019 measures of the capitalist politicians could inspire the 16 million \u2018abstainers\u2019;\nit could give another option to those still voting ANC because there is no\nconvincing alternative; it could provide a genuinely radical programme to those\nwilling to give the EFF\u2019s rhetoric the benefit of the doubt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The success of\nSaftu\u2019s 25 April strike gave a small taste of what is possible. The turnout\nclearly scared the leaders of the ANC. If it were not for Saftu\u2019s action, both\nthe LRA and amendments and the minimum wage would have become law without a\nwhisper of protest. The Workers and Socialist Party played an important role\nwithin Saftu in ensuring the action went ahead. Imagine if this was repeated on\nevery issue. We could expose all the lies of the bosses and their politicians,\nlinked to a mass movement fighting for a clear socialist alternative. This possibility\nshould make Saftu leaders\u2019 and members\u2019 mouth\u2019s water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The capitalist\nclass is carefully examining the different scenarios that could arise from 2019\nand what they would need to do in each one to stabilise their control of\nsociety. Let our class answer this with our own preparations. Our class needs a\nsocialist mass workers party. As a step toward its creation we call on Saftu to\ntake the lead in convening an assembly for working class unity. This could\nbring together representatives of workers, trade unions, working class\ncommunities, young people and students to unite the vast number of struggles\ninto a united political movement to challenge the bosses for control of\nsociety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ramaphosa\u2019s government is a bosses\u2019 government through to its bone marrow. Ramaphosa\u2019s first budget ensured that the poor and the working class will pay the main price for capitalism\u2019s failures.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-capitalisms-anc-crisis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"acf":[],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=443"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":628,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443\/revisions\/628"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marxistworkersparty.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}